The only person who can beat Novak Djokovic is himself

Rafael Nadal had reason to believe that everything was going well in 2016. After the abject nightmare that was most of 2015, he had done everything right: he finished the year strongly, he abjured the customary rest after a long season in favour of toiling to fix every last flaw in his game. At the turn of the year, he stole to victory in the Abu Dhabi exhibition and worked his way to the final of his first official tournament in Doha. Things were optimistic, things were hopeful and things seemed to be on the up.

But in this age of Novak Djokovic, for the rest of the field the reality is that optimism is dead; hope evaporates one baseline-kissing Djokovic return at a time and the only thing on the up is the rising glass ceiling separating Djokovic further and further from the rest of the field.

If Nadal or anyone else had forgotten these new rules of men's tennis in the new year, they were swiftly reminded as Djokovic stepped on court for their duel in last week’s final in Doha. Just 73 minutes later, Nadal laid in scattered pieces across the court after an exhibition of pure violence from Djokovic. Fourteen-time slam champions are not supposed to be dismembered and destroyed in such a manner, but if there is one thing we have learnt from Djokovic in recent years, it’s that he cares little for the rule of law that preceded him.

This is where the ATP stands at the beginning of a new slam season. When Djokovic arrived at the Australian Open last year, there were still a few questions to answer after his loss to Kei Nishikori at the US Open in 2014. This time around, the only debate to be had is whether the Serb will travel the full distance and win the impossible Grand Slam, or if he’ll have settle for a mere three or two victories.

The draw has only further accentuated this feeling. If the main debate circulating at the start of 2016 is precisely how many million matches Djokovic will win, then the second is who on earth could possibly be the person to stop him if he didn’t? The answers on paper are clear.

Stan Wawrinka’s God-like Roland Garros performance and their head-to-head slam history suggest he easily has the best shot if they meet. His ability to catch fire was once a rare find, but now seems almost a sure bet at some point this year. However, this fortnight the Swiss has been deposited into the most difficult section of the draw, with in-form big serve-and-forehanders Jack Sock and Milos Raonic waiting for him even before the possible Nadal and Andy Murray-shaped roadblocks. Wawrinka could easily flit into a white-hot run and burn these obstacles to dust, or he could just as easily flicker out.

In reality, Roger Federer has been Djokovic’s solitary legitimate rival over the past few years. But even then, there is a limit to the depth of their recent encounters. Federer has pushed Djokovic and snatched numerous victories with his recent unrelenting commitment to ending points as early as is humanly possible, but the patterns are also clear. Against Djokovic, Federer’s ballistic play is neutralised by slower courts, in the bigger matches and across five sets. If they were to meet in the semi-finals next week, all three boxes would be ticked.

Then there is Murray, whose off season was so short after the Hopman Cup that he hasn’t even yet undertaken his pre-season training. Beyond that, even in one of the best full seasons Murray has pieced together in his entire career, the gulf between Djokovic and the Scot was the size of a canyon. As usual, Murray’s results against Djokovic have left people suggesting that he should attack more and take more risks. The problem is simply that when Murray has tried to take his matches against Djokovic into his own hands, Djokovic has almost always left him in a similar state to Nadal this year.

Every single arrow appears to point to another overwhelmingly dominant tournament and year for Djokovic, but future opponents will point out that it won’t always be easy. Despite the fleeting moments when Djokovic dominated as he did against Nadal in Doha, 2015 was difficult and it will be remembered for the speedbumps and the crises he managed to avert and conquer.

It was the year Djokovic raged. It was the year he screamed more foul Serbian rants towards his team than ever before, the year he executed racquets with grim efficiency, and the year he would sit down after unsuccessful sets and his hands would violently shake as he tried to carry bottles of water to his mouth. The season was defined by Djokovic’s incredible mentality that allowed him to almost instantaneously bounce back from these moments and channel his rage into performing the perfect point that transformed the complexion of any given match.

Thus, for the next two weeks, the best bet that the field has is to assume that Djokovic still remains a sentient human being. They have to pray that the anger won’t always be transfigured into pitch perfect motivation, instead boiling over and hindering him, and they have to hope that the shadow of last season’s success will leave him more susceptible to the crises he will surely meet. Beyond that, Djokovic has ensured that they don’t have much hope left.