Paris-Roubaix 2022: Rider ratings – Mathieu Van der Poel the man to beat, Stefan Kung the dark horse

With the 119th edition of Paris-Roubaix reverting to its spring-time slot in the calendar and warm, dusty conditions forecast in northern France, we run through the main contenders for the third Monument of the season, the co-called Hell of the North.

In the absence of defending champion Sonny Colbrelli and the 2018 winner Peter Sagan, it’s highly likely that we see a new man on top of the podium on Sunday – unless veterans Philippe Gilbert, John Degenkolb, Greg van Avermaet and Niki Terpstra pull an unlikely result from the bag.

One man stands clear ahead of Paris-Roubaix and he needs no introduction. He did the Flandrien double with wins in Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Ronde before taking a solid fourth place at Amstel Gold last weekend. Finished third last year in his debut, Mathieu Van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix) has the hunger and the legs and the skillset to go two better and keep his stellar spring run going.

Had he not been struck down by Covid just over a fortnight ago, Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) would have probably entered this race on a par with his old rival. But there's no knowing how the Belgian champion will bounce back on the cobbles after so long on the sidelines and recovering from what can be a debilitating illness – just as Sagan.

If Van Aert gets four stars largely for his reputation and prior form alone, then Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) and Stefan Kung (Groupama-FDJ) occupy the same spot by virtue of sustained performances of high quality and promise. In the Dane’s case, it’s six wins from the season and an ability to be in the mix when it matters. Pedersen’s record at Roubaix isn’t top (95th, 71st, 51st and a DNF) in his previous four appearances – but this could be a coming of age race on the 26-year-old on the cobbles.

For Kung, there are no wins yet in 2022 but, in his first year really focusing on the classics, the 28-year-old Swiss had been a mainstay on the front of each race he’s ridden. A podium in E3, a top five in the Ronde, and top 10s in Dwars and Amstel Gold show that Kung is coming to the boil nicely. He could easily do a Mat Hayman out there – he certainly has the class and staying power. Although three DNFs from six means victory would be a trifle aberrant.

Making his long-awaited Roubaix debut, Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) had the physique, power and arsenal to reign supreme on the cobbles of northern France. And who needs experience anyway? Last year’s top three were all debutants, after all. The 25-year-old could form a potent foil to his Dutch teammate Dylan van Baarle, who came close to upsetting Van der Poel in Flanders and who is enjoying such a good year that there’s talk of a move to Jumbo-Visma in the offing.

Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl have had a rotten classics campaign and even a resounding victory for one of their riders won’t change that. But it will boost morale and at the very least add some tonic to a wretched spring for Pat Lefevre’s squad. Once again, the burden will fall to Kasper Asgreen; the Dane finished sixth at Amstel but is yet to go higher than 50th in this race.

A more likely outsider, perhaps, is the Norwegian veteran Alexander Kristoff (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert) who took tenth in the Ronde before soloing to glory in filthy conditions at Scheldeprijs. Twice a top 10 in Roubaix, Kristoff will need an extraordinary performance to upset the favourites on Easter Sunday.

Another Ineos Grenadier to watch is the American tyro Magnus Sheffield, who powered to an outstanding win at De Brabantse Pijl midweek. He’s strong, he’s fearless, he’s in fine fettle – Sheffield could play a huge role in his debut, two days before he turns 20.

Milan-San Remo winner Matej Mohoric will fly the flag for Bahrain Victorious in the absence of Sonny Colbrelli. The 27-year-old Slovenian champion has been excellent all spring – although he’s never finished higher than 70th in the Hell of the North.

Belgium’s Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) has finished twice in the top five at Roubaix and will be a great foil for teammate Mads Pedersen, meanwhile compatriot Yves Lampaert was third in 2019 and has another fifth and seventh to his name, although no form to speak of.

Now onto the outsiders. It was only three years ago that Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal) won Paris-Roubaix but the Belgian veteran has been parachuted into help out his ailing team. He’s here on his past victories, not his form, and as an old-hand to help guide last year’s runner up, Florian Vermeersch. The latter hasn’t done anything to write home about since getting the better of Van der Poel, but missing out to Colbrelli, in his debut last year – hence his absence from this list.

Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma) has had a strong enough spring to merit inclusion here – especially should his leader Van Aert be feeling the pinch. Greg van Avaermart (Ag2R-Citroen) won in 2017 but has been on the decline ever since. But 15th in the Ronde was at least encouraging for the 36-year-old former Olympic gold medallist.

Nils Politt (Bora-Hansgrohe) was second behind Gilbert the year the Belgian won the cobblestone trophy. The German doesn’t have much form, but this will be the main focus of his spring and so discount him at your peril. He just won’t win in a sprint.

Another youngster worth throwing into the mix is Britain’s Ben Turner (Ineos Grenadiers) who has been on inspired form this spring. The 22-year-old from Doncaster was one of three Ineos riders in the winning move at De Brabantse Pijl and seems to be riding with confidence and a refreshing never-say-never attitude.

The 2015 winner John Degenkolb (Team DSM) sneaks into this list by merit of his previous win and the fact that he lives and breathes cobbles. A more likely outsider, perhaps, is the Frenchman Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies) who copes well on the cobbles – and has a fast finish – although is lumbered with two DNFs in his last two races…