Tour de France 2023 Stage 20 recap: Pinot denied as Pogacar wins and Vingegaard secures second triumph

Lidl-Trek are all over this as Mads Pedersen and Mattis Skjelmose lead out their man in polka dots Giulio Ciccone, who zips clear uncontested to pocket the 5pts over the summit of the Ballon d'Alsace. That puts him up to 93pts - 11pts clear of his nearest challenger, Felix Gall, who doesn't look like he's too motivated in this polka dot jersey tussle.

Once again it's Skjelmose on the front now setting the pace for team-mate Ciccone ahead of those KOM points. After Campenaerts was caught, Magnus Cort (EF) and Dylan Teuns (Israel-PremierTech) flirted with making a move before Lidl-Trek wrested back control.

It's unclear what his intention was by breaking away so early. I guess he hoped some other riders would bridge over and he could be part of the day's breakaway. In any case, it hasn't worked out for the Belgian, who is reeled in around 4.5km from the summit of this first climb. Meanwhile, off the back there are many riders losing touch...

We already mentioned the obvious choice of Thibaut Pinot, who would love a farewell win in his home region on the penultimate day of his Tour career. Ineos Grenadiers will want to push their man Carlos Rodriguez up to third but Tom Pidcock and Egan Bernal have both flattered to deceive and may be tempted to turn things around at the last.

Julian Alaphilippe has been very aggressive but to little end. Will he be buoyed by team-mate Asgreen's recent success(es)? EF Education-EasyPost will end this race with nothing unless Neilson Powless or Rigo Uran get in the mix. What about Mikkel Landa? He's been anonymous in this Tour - but with Bahrain team-mates Bilbao, Poels and Mohoric tasting success, could he add a fourth stage win for the team?

If Ciccone doesn't go the distance than his Danish team-mate Matthias Skjelmose deserves something from his aggressive racing. Gorka Izagirre's brother has won in July and Movistar has had a torrid Tour - so perhaps that's motivation enough for the elder brother?

Cofidis could target a third stage win in this race through, say, Guillaume Martin, while Alexey Lutsenko could provide a silver lining for Astana after their troubles. Uno-X have ridden an aggressive debut Tour but have nothing to show for it... can one of their climbers pull off a surprise?

But I will try and outline some potential scenarios. The obvious battles are Vingegaard vs Pogacar with the top two - yellow and white - wanting to end their race on a high. There's also the likelihood of a polka dot battle between Ciccone or Gall, who are strong enough climbers to win the stage while pushing for points. And what about a brotherly battle between Adam Yates - to secure his place on the podium - and Simon Yates - to defend his firth place while trying to make it third-time-lucky after coming runner-up twice so far this year.

Campenaerts has ridden clear of his Lotto team-mate in the opening kilometre of this climb. Behind, a group of around 10 riders has zipped clear of the pack - including the polka dot jersey, of course.

Campenaerts and De Buyst start the first of six climbs with a gap of 45 seconds but a rampant Lidl-Trek team driving the tempo behind. The Ballon d'Alsace is a Cat.2 ascent of 11.5km at an average gradient of 5.2%. There are 5 KOM points up for grabs over the summit.

Certainly not the start Adam Blythe envisages - but it does make perfect sense now, all things considered.

It seems like most sensible riders are biding their time until the first climb. That's because Lidl-Trek are on the front in a bid to control things ahead of the Ballon d'Alsace, where they will hope to slingshot their man in polka dots to the summit so he can pick up 5pts. Ciccone is definitely one of the favourites for the win today given his strengths and that polka dot jersey motivation - but it may be that his priority is to take enough points over the first four or five climbs, so that the final climb is redundant.

Nelson Oliveira (Movistar) tried to bridge over to the two leaders but that came to nothing before TotalEnergies pinged two men off the front with Uno-X in tow. This sparks a big reply from swathes of other riders but that in turn neutralises things and brings the peloton back together - trailing the Lotto duo by 30 seconds.

Well, well, well... you can't keep Victor Campenaerts down, can you? The Belgian attacks from the gun for the third successive day and he's gone clear with his Lotto Dstny team-mate Jasper De Buyst. No one else goes for now although some were clearly tempted...

The remaining 151 riders have been riding out of Belfort in the neutral zone, which has a kilometre or so left to run. It's a cloudy day with the sun doing its best to breakthrough. The temperature is 24 degrees and we are primed for a huge battle for the breakaway ahead of the Ballon d'Alsace climb, which starts after around 13km.

It's unclear if the Slovenian was suggesting that he and his UAE team were pushing for the yellow jersey today or if he simply meant finishing on a high with a stage win - presumably the latter - but you can never discount the seemingly impossible with Pogacar...

"We're going to fight for today and let's hope that we can do it. We will give it our all. We have good motivation and a high atmosphere today. My legs are much better than yesterday and 200 times better than two days before. When we cross the line in Paris, I think we can be really proud and happy with what we've achieved. But let's just hope for another good day today - then we can have a really crazy party in Paris."

If Jonas Vingegaard is all but assured of winning a second successive Tour, it would take another implosion for his closest rival Tadej Pogacar to lose his second place today. As things stand, it's the Slovenian's UAE team-mate Adam Yates who occupies the final spot on the podium, but behind him there are a host of riders who will be doing their best to push him out of third today - even his own twin brother...

3. Adam Yates
4. Carlos Rodriguez +1'16"
5. Simon Yates +1'34"
6. Pello Bilbao +2'05"
7. Jai Hindley +3'05

Most scriptwriters today would certainly have Thibaut Pinot feature heavily - after all, this is the last Tour de France mountain stage of the Frenchman's career and it takes place in his home region. More than that, Pinot's home town of Belfort is where the race starts today and so Pinot will have all his friends and family present.

Yet to win a stage in this race, Pinot has come close - and finished runner-up twice in the Giro earlier this summer. It seems almost inconceivable that the 33-year-old and his Groupama-FDJ team won't move heaven and earth to make sure he's in the right move today and in with a shout of what would be an emotional swansong to beat all others.

After stages suited to the sprinters and breakaway specialists alike, the penultimate day of the race plays out in this short 133.5km dash across the Vosges. Five climbs – including the Cat.1 Petit Ballon (9.3km at 8.1%) – precede the final ascent of the race, the Platzerwaswel side of the Grand Ballon.

The finish borrows from the Le Tour Femmes finale last summer and comes at Le Markstein over 8km from the summit of the last climb – a parcours quirk that could either add some tension or burst the bubble early depending on how the stage is ridden and which riders find themselves in the break.

While none of the climbs are super tough, the succession of peaks and troughs – and very little downtime between each of the day’s tests – could combine to make this an eye-catching stage for spectators. It culminates a tough three-week race where everyone is on their limit - so expect some surprises as well as the usual blend of familiar faces.

While we're on the subject of Mohoric, the Slovenian's honest and heartfelt interview yesterday was quite something. No platitudes or cliches from the 28-year-old, who wore his heart on his sleeve with a brutal assessment of just how hard it is to be a professional rider.

Given the context of the interview - most notably the recent death of Mohoric's team-mate Gino Mader - it was a stirring few minutes and a fascinating insight into the sport and one man's struggle with self-doubt, his grit and determination and courage.

Yesterday, Bahrain Victorious picked up their third win of the race through Matej Mohoric. 11 teams have shared out the 19 wins so far, which means there are another 11 teams without success so far on this race - so we can expect a massive battle for the breakaway today. Here's how Mohoric denied Kasper Asgreen a second successive stage win with his late burst and superior bike lunge yesterday...

The double champion saw his hopes of a third Tour de France win dashed at the start of the week after Jonas Vingegaard's sensational time trial and emphatic performance on the Col de la Loze. The Slovenian trails the Dane by 7'35" in the standings so unless something out of this world - or incredibly unfortunate - happens in the next four hours, then it will be Vingegaard securing his second successive win in Paris tomorrow. But Pogacar will want to go out with a bang - and what better way than take a second stage win?