Tour de France 2023 Stage 19 LIVE: A fifth victory for Jasper Philipsen or a first for Fred Wright?

It was so close between him and Asgreen that we had to wait for the photo.

Around 500m from the finish Ben O'Connor drifted off the wheel, to give himself some rush room and launched from behind, as he had to. Asgreen was in the front and he who jumped on and then came round O'Connor. Mohoric was quick to the Dane's wheel to take some of the slipstream, before emerging and throwing immaculately for the line. There was a tyre's width between them in the end. But that's all it takes.

Coming in 40 seconds later, Jasper Philipsen won the sprint for 4th place.

Asgreen being a little more cautious. Ben O'Connor surely needs to go early?

Not all of them, but the cohesion has completely gone. This is not what through and off is supposed to look like. We're going to have a sprint between Mohoric, O'Connor and Asgreen.

I'm calling it. Three riders - especially three riders as strong as these - against nine with 26 seconds, inside ten kilometres, even on a straight road, on which the group behind can see the one in front, is a lot.

Who are: Christophe Laporte, Matteo Trentin, Tom Pidcock, Jasper Philipsen, Mathieu Van der Poel, Luka Mezgec, Georg Zimmermann, Alberto Bettiol, Mads Pedersen.

They seem to be rolling through, but are they all giving everything on every turn? It doesn't look like it to me. We know the front three are, and if the clock is to be trusted, their lead is only increasing.

The gap to the lead trio is narrowing, and the riders behind aren't going to let MVDP go, while Philipsen can simply sit in the wheels and allow himself to be pulled along. Not that everyone isn't pretty much on the limit at this point.

If they're not going to cooperate with him, the Frenchman decides, he's going to leave them behind. That at least inspires a chase of him, from Van der Poel for example, but having caught him, they seem to immediately forget all about the three further up the road.

Not hard, but on a fast right hander. The New Zealander was being talked about as a potential stage winner just moments ago, but it's over for him now.

Three very very strong riders who are going to give it everything for one of them to stay away for the win. It may not be easy, but it is at least simple for them, whereas behind, as many riders as there may be, there needs to be a rapid regrouping. Someone needs to take that chase by the scruff.

That did... not last long. In the chase group, which is hurting, and from which riders are dropping like flies, Fred Wright is at the front and marking everything. He can't chase down his own team-mate, as much as he'd like to win himself. Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco Alula) is doing very well to stay with the main group of chasers.

Yesterday's winner surely won't win again, but he's the one to light the touch paper, with Matej Mohoric and Ben O'Connor alive to it. They quickly close in on Campenaerts, who will do well to stay with them. But who from behind will take it up now?

Clutching his right thigh, he lets Campenaert's wheel disappear into the distance. We all know how painful that can be.

They're onto the final climb of the day, one of the last of this entire Tour de France, which is 2.4km in length, for an average gradient of 5.9%. That makes it punchy enough for the puncheurs but rolly enough for the rouleurs, and there are plenty of both those types of rider in the chasing group. The hardworking pair up front look cooked, and as impressive as their ride has been, the end is surely nigh.

It's looking like curtains for Jasper Philipsen either way. He might have made it into the large breakaway, but given the near minute held by Campenaerts and Clarke, surely those who can hit it hard, will hit it hard. If they don't they won't bring back the lead pair anyway, and none of them will win the stage.

That earlier move by Campenaerts not only worked pretty well for him, but it was tempting enough to draw out the Israel PremierTech rider. The pair of them have gradually eked out a very real, 30 second plus lead over the larger breakaway group behind them. At the moment it's just Uno-X doing the pulling but some others - Mathieu van der Poel, for Jasper Philipsen, perhaps? - are going to have to put a shift in soon.

Now I'm not saying this was the complete catalyst for the failure of the earlier break to hold out, but their lead did fall precipitously immediately afterwards, so it could well prove to have been the butterfly that flapped its wings. That's a fairly clunky chaos theory reference, maths fans.

For now. They're not out of it entirely, and they're still going to be able to contest the stage, but their odds have reduced significantly, and they're not thrilled about it. Victor Campenaerts is really not happy about it, and he has another solo go. He can't be as unhappy as Nils Politt, though. You'd have thought the German riders would be back up there, but isn't. He is, instead, trying to attack, or pull it back, from the peloton. It's not happening, Nils.

Well done Uno-X you'd have to say. It wasn't pretty but it was, ultimately effective.