Tour de France 2023 Stage 18 recap: Kasper Asgreen the surprise winner as breakaway goes the distance

Germany's Phil Bauhaus came second and third in sprints in the opening week but the Bahrain Victorious sprinter withdrew yesterday after toiling off the back from early on. Bahrain could play the Nikias Arndt card - just like Astana could play the Cees Bol card now that Mark Cavendish is out - but it's unlikely to reap any rewards while Philipsen is sprinting so well. As for Bora-hansgrohe, they have Jordi Meeus for the sprints - although he hasn't finished higher than sixth since dislodging Sam Bennett in Bora's Tour team.

In his five appearances, Asgreen has twice finished second in a Tour stage - iin 2019 (37 seconds behind MAtteo Trentin in Gap) and 2021 (21 seconds behind Wout van Aert in the final time trial). Campenaerts has never finished higher than 10th in a Tour stage (in two appearances). As for debutant Abrahamsen, his best result this July has been 14th.

And that's something we love to see... He was almost unrecognisable yesterday as he toiled up the Col de la Loze.

Asgreen, Campenaerts and Abrahamsen are on a hiding to nothing in the heat of the Isere valley road out there. It's not so much a leash as shackles from the peloton. No gifts - even four days from Paris.

Personally, I think it's a nice kit - very classy. But the big issue is that it doesn't stand out in the same way that the yellow jersey does. Or, indeed, that the old green jersey did. That means the fastest sprinter Philipsen is often lost in the crowd of the peloton, which doesn't seem right. It remains to be seen if ASO stick with the new design next year, or if they revert to how it has been in the past...

Mads Pedersen's team-mates have also committed a couple of bodies to the chase in their bid to launch the Dane to his second stage win. Pedersen is one of the riders who could well stop Philipsen from winning a fifth stage - although I expect the pure speed of a Groenewegen or a Coquard or a Welsford might have a better chance on a flat finish.

The gap is 1'08" for the leading trio, who went clear pretty much from the gun today.

Not even a stalled motorbike could stop Jonas Vingegaard from moving over seven minutes clear on GC as the Dane closed on a second Tour de France crown on Stage 17. The yellow jersey backed up his astonishing time trial display on Tuesday with an imperious performance on the Col de la Loze, where his chief rival Tadej Pogacar cracked before haemorrhaging time on another dramatic day at the Tour.

Alpecin-Deceuninck, Jayco-AlUla and Team dsm-firmenich have all come to the front to regulate the gap and control the chase - paving the way for their respective sprinters Jasper Philipsen, Dylan Groenewegen and Sam Welsford. The pack is all strung out under the fast tempo with the trio's advantage down to 1'18".

Perhaps the best thing would be for Asgreen, Campenaerts and Abrahamsen to be reeled in so we can reset and have a second go at a proper break forming off the front. Otherwise, it's going to be a long day for viewers and journalists alike...

It's no huge surprise to see riders from Soudal and Lotto here: both Belgian teams have lost their sprinters Fabio Jakobsen and Caleb Ewan and neither team has yet to pick up a stage win. Ditto Uno-X on their Tour debut - and should this trio go the distance, Abrahamsen would have the superior kick. But it's unlikely they will stay away, even if the gap has now grown to 1'30".

Perhaps Wright was over-egging the creme brulee because we only have a trio in what looks like the day's break: Victor Campenaerts (Lotto Dstny), Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X) and Kasper Asgreen (Soudal-QuickStep). The gap quickly grows to around 30 seconds with the front of the peloton easing up to a straight line wall. But some riders are now showing a bit of interest, including Anthony Turgis of TotalEnergies, marked out by the man in green, Jasper Philipsen...

The attacks come in from the gun - which is what you would expect as we get so deep into the Tour with 12 teams still without a win. In an interview before the stage, Fred Wright said that, logically, that would mean the breakaway today would include 12 riders at the least. It remains to be seen if it's quite as competitive as that...

Just two Cat.4 climbs today so Giulio Ciccone will keep hold of the polka dot jersey no matter what - although yesterday's stage winner Felix Gall could, in theory, move within four points of the Italian's lead in the KOM standings. In fact, most climbing today comes from the uphill grind out of Moutier during the long 15km neutral section. They're around 5km from the official start now - and it's another sunny and hot day in the Alps.

One rider who won't end Philipsen's run - or his own winless streak, for that matter - is Wout van Aert. The all-rounder from Jumbo-Visma has left the Tour to be at his wife's bedside ahead of the birth of their second child. We always knew it was a possibility - and with team leader Vingegaard now all but assured of the yellow jersey in Paris, Van Aert has decided to put family first.

While he has been instrumental once again in Vingegaard's push for yellow, it's been a frustrating Tour for Van Aert who has come second twice, third twice and fifth once since the grand depart in Bilbao...

On paper, this is clearly a sprint stage. Indeed, if this took place in the opening week it would 99.9% end up in a bunch sprint at Bourg-en-Bresse. But we're just four days from Paris and there are 12 teams still without a stage win - and one sprinter in Philipsen who looks unbeatable.

So we can expect many riders and teams to try and disrupt the narrative and do their utmost best to ensure there's no sprint today. And if there is, there's a host of sprinters like Groenewegen, Coquard, Welsford, Kristoff, Sagan, Mozzato and Girmay who have yet to win.

Almost 18 minutes separate first from 10th underlines just how otherworldly this performances by the defending champion has been. UAE have two men either side of Vingegaard on the current podium - which is certainly a consolation - while there's a set of twins in the top five, too.

1. Jonas Vingegaard
2. Tadej Pogacar +7'35"
3. Adam Yates +10'45"
4. Carlos Rodriguez +12'01"
5. Simon Yates +12'19"
6. Pello Bilbao +12'50"
7. Jai Hindley +13'50"
8. Felix Gall +16'11"
9. Sepp Kuss +16'49"
10. David Gaudu +17'57"

If it wasn't already over after the time trial, then the writing was well and truly on the wall on the final climb of yesterday's stage. Here's how Tadej Pogacar imploded on the Col de la Loze at a point where Jumbo-Visma had not even thrown down the hammer for their man in yellow, Jonas Vingegaard.

Two wins in his first two Tours, Tadej Pogacar came to this race to wrest back control after ceding last year's maillot jaune to Vingegaard. But baring misfortune or a miracle, the Dane will level the scores at 2-2 in Paris on Sunday. Yesterday, we saw a Pogacar we have never seen before: one roundly defeated and at his lowest ebb. "I'm dead. It's over." Those were the words of the double champion on the team radio when he cracked on the Col de la Loze. In the end, he needed to be paced up the last 7km by his UAE team-mate Marc Soler.

The two top riders of this Tour started the week separated by just 10 seconds in the general classification. But after a spellbinding time trial and an emphatic performance - coupled with a sad implosion - on the Col de la Loze, Jonas Vingegaard now leads Tadej Pogacar by a whopping 7'35" in what has become a one-way battle for yellow.

After the drama of the last two days, the focus shifts from yellow to green with a stage suited to the sprinters and fast finishers. Jasper Philipsen will be the outright favourite to snap up a fifth win - but the likes of Dylan Groenewegen, Mads Pedersen, Biniam Girmay, Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff and Sam Welsford will be keen to stop the Belgian from running riot in Bourg-en-Bresse.