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Bayern Munich scouting report: Why Arsenal have a real chance now Carlo Ancelotti's in charge

Johannes Mittermeier

Updated 15/02/2017 at 09:23 GMT

The Champions League returns this week with Wednesday’s headline act seeing Arsenal travel to Bayern Munich for the first leg of their last-16 match against the German champions.

Bayern Munich

Image credit: Eurosport

Things are not particularly rosy at Emirates Stadium with fan discontent spilling over of late and the uncertainty over Arsene Wenger’s future growing at a time when the team are struggling for form.
And yet, Bayern may not be an insurmountable task, for once. Arsenal may have lost to them twice in the last-16 in the past four years, but under Carlo Ancelotti, as opposed to Jupp Heynckes and then Pep Guardiola, they are a very different team.
We asked Eurosport.de's Johannes Mittermeier to give us his expert insight into how good Bayern are at the moment, and what kind of threat they will pose to Arsenal.

What has changed at Bayern since Ancelotti replaced Guardiola?

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Carlo Ancelotti (FC Bayern München)

Image credit: AFP

To keep it simple: everything. I’ve been following Bayern in detail over a number of years and it’s a completely different style of football now. There’s much less creativity, intensity and structure; the quality of passing and positioning has reduced dramatically. Many supporters are confused that Ancelotti has changed so much in a relatively short period of time.
Pep is obviously known for his precise instructions regarding what kind of action each player is expected to do at each moment. It seems that it’s not important for Ancelotti how Bayern play, only that they win – no matter whether it’s attractive. Especially in 2017, it’s certainly not. But Ancelotti is considered to be a coach for the second half of the season. He’s quite relaxed so it’s fair to say he presumably has a plan. Arsenal will be the first match to really prove him right or wrong in his approach.
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Ancelotti: I have a lot of respect for Wenger

There is a feeling Bayern are not as strong this season, but they are still seven points clear and have only lost once. What makes you think they are vulnerable?

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Top 5 Bundesliga goals: Robben and Chicharito star

See above: the matches. Yes, there was a 3-0 over title rivals Leipzig in December which was convincing. However, apart from this match Bayern haven’t had many great performances – and even their opponents in the Bundesliga are no longer as afraid when facing them.
In 2017, Bayern won 2-1 vs Freiburg (Lewandowski, last minute), 2-1 vs Bremen (two moments of individual class from Robben and Alaba) and 2-0 vs Ingolstadt (Vidal and Robben scored last-minute goals). Against Schalke (1-1) it would easily have been possible to lose at home and even a cup win over Wolfsburg (1-0) was far from impressive. Bayern’s players and bosses rely on the historically proven attitude that this club is able to get in shape for big games. I’m not really sure, though.

Do Bayern have to win convincingly at home as their away record is poor in Europe?

I think so. Their last European away victory in a knockout stage was the 2-0 against Arsenal three years ago. It is a strange weakness, even with Pep (after Arsenal in 2014: 1-1 vs United, 0-1 vs Real / 0-0 vs Donetsk, 1-3 vs Porto, 0-3 vs Barca / 2-2 vs Juve, 2-2 vs Benfica, 0-1 vs Atletico)

How do you think they will line up? Any tactical surprises?

I don’t expect a revolution. Ancelotti speaks more about “mentality, personality, character” than the line-up. In Ingolstadt on Saturday he chose a 4-3-2-1-system without a real player on the wing. It wasn’t very entertaining. Now it’s mainly about Douglas Costa or Thomas Muller because Ribery is still injured. Muller is not really suitable as a left winger, which makes me think that Costa will start, with Thiago being a number 10 again. The Spaniard made his comeback last week and is arguably Bayern’s key player.

Predicted XI:

Bayern team

Has the issue of Philipp Lahm’s declaration over his future been a problem at all for Bayern?

The communication of Lahm’s retirement was a bit embarrassing as president Uli Hoeness said that nothing was clear and moments later Lahm said that everything was, in fact, clear. His decision not to become sporting director at Bayern was a topic last week but with the beginning of the crucial part of the season it shouldn’t be daily business anymore.
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