Explained: How Andy Murray can become world number one - and how he can stay above Novak Djokovic
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Updated 04/11/2016 at 18:24 GMT
Andy Murray has never been closer to becoming world number one - so how can he make that final leap to usurp Novak Djokovic? And how can he stay there?
Andy Murray celebrates his win at the Vienna Open
Image credit: AFP
Right, quick, let's get straight to the situation at hand...
How can Murray become world number one?
Quite simply, Murray can overtake Djokovic in the world rankings as early as this week at the Paris Masters if one of these two things happen:
1 - Murray wins the event; Djokovic fails to reach the final
2 - Murray reaches the final; Djokovic fails to reach the semi-finals
The second half of both of those hypothetical scenarios has now happened after Marin Cilic beat him 6-4 7-6 in Paris.
Who deserves to end the year as world number one?
Before this week, Djokovic had won for three successive seasons in Paris and the Serb, as reigning champion, had a daunting 1,200 points to defend at the tournament. Meanwhile, Murray - who went out in the round robin stage last year - had just 200 points to defend and a great deal to gain.
However, it does not end there. With 1,500 points up for grabs for a champion who goes undefeated at the World Tour Finals in London, Murray could become world number one this week only for Djokovic to wrestle it back to end the year as top dog once more.
Djokovic and Murray could have a showdown with the world number one ranking at stake in London; however, if Djokovic wins in Paris and Murray fails to make the semi-finals, he would retain his end-of-year ranking for a third consecutive season.
What are the current points tallies?
1 - Novak Djokovic - 10,600
2 - Andy Murray - 10,185
3 - Stan Wawrinka - 5,105
4 - Milos Raonic - 4,690
5 - Kei Nishikori - 4,615
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Andy Murray of Great Britain (R) poses with the winner's trophy
Image credit: AFP
Hang on a second: let's have some context about the whole rankings thing...
How does the rankings system operate?
Essentially, the rankings system calculates the total points won from the past 19 tournaments over the previous year.
Those tournaments are made up of the following:
- Four Grand Slams
- Eight mandatory ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments
- The World Tour Finals
- The best six results from all ATP World Tour 500, ATP World Tour 250, ATP Challenger Tour and Futures Series tournaments
How many points do you get for winning each event?
It really does vary for each event, depending on its significance within the calendar. It's a fairly simple structure:
- Grand Slams - 2,000
- Grand Slam finalists - 1,200
- Grand Slam semi-finalists - 720
- Masters 1000 - 1,000 points
- 500 Series - 500 points
- 250 Series - Yes, you guessed it... 250 points
- Olympic gold - Nothing (sorry, Andy!)
Wait, Djokovic must have had a nightmare run then...
How has Murray closed the gap to Djokovic?
Murray has closed the gap dramatically over the space of the last four months, so much so, that he now trails by just 415 points.
Djokovic, who has finished four of the past five years as the world number one, has suffered a severe dip in form since he triumphed in Toronto at the start of August, having crashed out at Wimbledon.
The 29-year-old, who has 12 Grand Slam titles to his name, suffered an emotional exit at the Olympics before being stunned by Stanislas Wawrinka at the US Open. He has struggled to regain form since.
In stark contrast, Murray has been electrifying. The Scot clinched his seventh title of the year in Vienna - and in so doing made it 52 wins in his past 56 matches.
The BBC have illustrated the different paths the pair have been on with the below graphic:
Given his remarkably consistent 2015 - in which he ended the year with 14 victories in his final 15 matches - Djokovic was tasked with defending an enormous 3,300 points over the last six weeks of this season.
For example, Djokovic had to win the US Open in September to defend all of his 2,000 points, but fell short with his defeat to Wawrinka. His personal bar has been set outrageously high.
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Novak Djokovic of Serbia
Image credit: Reuters
It's about time we heard from the players...
Djokovic on his poor run of form
"I have been in these particular situations before in terms of ranking, so I know what to do, and I just keep things very simple.
"Winning the French Open this year has brought a lot of joy to me but on the other hand has taken away a lot from me, as well.
I felt a little bit exhausted, I must say, and maybe less motivated. So I had to kind of rediscover that feeling of being on the court and keep pushing myself.
"I guess it took a little bit of time, more time, and I'm in a better state of mind at the moment than I was some months ago."
Djokovic: Murray deserves to be number one
"You've got to give him credit for what he's done in the last three or four months - the second part of the year is quite incredible..
He definitely deserves to be in the position of being number one at the end of the year. But that doesn't just depend on him.
"He's playing maybe the best tennis he's ever played, very consistent, very strong."
Murray on his sensational form
"Obviously he could win the event and, if I lose in the first round, then I am a long way from being number one.
"I've never won there before, so to just expect that you're going to win the tournament would be silly.
I don't feel any differently now to how I did six or eight weeks ago. My goal wasn't to finish as number one at the end of this year.
"I wanted to finish this year as strong as possible and I think there is a lot stronger chance of doing it in the early part of next year, which is what I targeted rather than this week."
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Serbia's Novak Djokovic (R) speaks with Britain's Andy Murray after winning the men's final match at Roland Garros
Image credit: AFP
Djokovic has been world number one for ages, right?
He certainly has. For all the talk of Djokovic having endured a disappointing campaign, let's not forget that he won the Australian Open - of course, he always does! - and, very significantly, his maiden French Open title.
The Serb has spent a staggering 122 consecutive weeks as the world number one, which is the longest stretch since Roger Federer's remarkable 237 weeks on the bounce between 2004 and 2008.
Which events has Murray won this season?
Vienna (Indoor/Hard)
Shanghai Masters (Outdoor/Hard)
Beijing (Outdoor/Hard)
Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games (Outdoor/Hard)
Wimbledon (Outdoor/Grass)
Queen's Club (Outdoor/Grass)
Rome Masters (Outdoor/Clay)
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Andy Murray wins Wimbledon 2016
Image credit: AFP
Which events has Djokovic won this season?
Toronto Masters (Outdoor/Hard)
French Open (Outdoor/Clay)
Madrid Masters (Outdoor/Clay)
Miami Masters (Outdoor/Hard)
Indian Wells (Outdoor/Hard)
Australian Open (Outdoor/Hard)
Doha (Outdoor/Hard)
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Serbia's Novak Djokovic (L) and Britain's Andy Murray pose with their trophies after Djokovic won the men's final match at the Roland Garros 2016 French Tennis Open in Paris
Image credit: AFP
OUR VIEW
With something as quantifiable as the world rankings, it is hard to say that a particular player "deserves" to occupy the world number one spot if the stats do not reflect that opinion. However, there really does appear to be a consensus within tennis that Murray has earned the right, even if it is not yet official.
Is seems incredible that many have been suggesting Djokovic has not had a good year when you consider that he finally succeeded in his quest to win the French Open for the first time - and add to that his annual triumph at the Australian Open, of course.
There is no doubt whatsoever that Djokovic and Murray are the two outstanding players in the world right now and the pair have been playing at levels Rafael Nadal and Federer would have been proud of in their heyday. If Murray does not become world number one this week - or indeed at the World Tour Finals - it would be extremely difficult to imagine him not reaching the top of the ATP Tour next season. He really is in the form of his life.
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