Tokyo 2020 - Women’s Road Race: Can anyone beat Dutch stars Anna van der Breggen and Annemiek van Vleuten?

The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games kick off in earnest this week and road cycling fans don’t need to wait long for their fix at this year’s event. Both the men’s and women’s races will be taking place on the opening weekend of the Games. Of course, this year’s event will look different to previous editions as no spectators will be allowed on the course and, with the Olympics returning five years after the Rio 2016 event, this year’s winner of the road race will only have the pleasure of embellishing their kit in gold for three years rather than the five that Anna van der Breggen and Greg Van Avermaet have enjoyed.

Looking beyond the bling, we should be in for a sparkling couple of hours racing in the hills south-west of Tokyo on Sunday morning. Although the women's route differs from the men's, and the likes of Van der Breggen and Deignan won't be riding the proper climb of Mount Fuji, it is still an attritional route with plenty of elevation to challenge the peloton.

Rio 2016 winner Van der Breggen will be back with a Dutch super-squad, although much has changed since the last Games and other countries will be looking to end the orange dominance that reaches back to London 2012. But will they be able to? And if so, how?

Only 67 women are competing in this year's road race, a stark contrast to the men's 130. Of those 67, the dominant nations the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Australia and the United States have been given spaces for four riders. All other nations have between one and three riders, which of course, puts them on the back foot.

While five nations are lucky enough to have four-rider squads, only the Dutch team is so strong the race could be won by any of its four members. Previous gold medallists Anna van der Breggen and Marianne Vos are top choices, but Annemiek van Vleuten is also an incredibly strong contender. She chose to skip the Giro Donne to avoid potential injury leading up to Tokyo, so should be feeling fresh ahead of Sunday. The final recruit to the super-squad is SD Worx protégé, Demi Vollering. Proven in sprints and climbs, she looks set to take over Anna van der Breggen's crown as a leader at SD Worx after she retires at the end of this season. Vollering may be ‘plan D’ for the Dutch team, but she’d walk into leadership at virtually any other national squad at this Games.

Who could challenge the seemingly untouchable Dutch for gold? Australia has strength in numbers this year, with climber Amanda Spratt and rising talent Grace Brown headlining their team. They are led by road captain Tiffany Cromwell who – somewhat surprisingly given her fruitful and lengthy career so far – will be competing in her first Olympic Games.

Italy will also field four riders, with Elisa Longo-Borghini the obvious leader given her national title and WorldTour successes with Trek-Segafredo. She looked a little bit off-the-pace at Giro Donne, however, and might be struggling for form.

The United States and Germany are the other two countries with four allocated riders. The US have a strong climber in Ruth Winder who is saying goodbye to professional cycling at the end of this year and would dearly love to go out on a high. She’ll be backed up by the prodigiously-talented Chloe Dygert (also in action on the boards of the velodrome later in the Games), Leah Thomas and Coryn Rivera, who returned to winning ways at the top level with her stage victory in Giro Donne earlier this month. Rivera was climbing brilliantly for someone who made her name as a sprinter, and could be a wildcard winner for this year’s gold.

Germany brings national road and time trial champion Lisa Brennauer, who could really pose threats to the Dutch dominance if left to gain traction in a breakaway.

Classics riders such as Lizzie Deignan of Great Britain could see success if they can cling on through the middle section of climbing. With only two riders in the Great Britain team (Deignan and Anna Shackley), they won't be able to control the race with numbers, and will have to try and out-fox the Dutch if they want Deignan to be able to go up the road. After a previous silver in London 2012, Deignan will be looking to finally clinch the gold after finishing outside the medals in Rio.

Climbers such as Kasia Niewiadoma of Poland, Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio of South Africa and Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig of Denmark will want to make sure they whittle down the peloton before reaching the speedway. These smaller teams may be forced to try and attack during the climbs, or at least wear down the legs of the more punchy riders.

Whether the Dutch can be beaten may yet be decided by the Dutch themselves. As mentioned, Annemiek van Vleuten skipped the Giro, her favourite race of the year, in order to maximise her chances of winning in Tokyo. It seems farfetched to suggest that she would be willing to let van der Breggen take the starring role in this Dutch team. Van der Breggen, with one eye on her retirement, may also be reluctant to work for van Vleuten’s interests. If there’s one thing that can throw a spanner in the works for the women in orange, it’s a bit of internecine squabbling.

A route that has been described as similar to that of an Ardennes Classic, it is comprised of 137km and 2,692 metres of climbing – this is not going to be an easy day in the office. Riders will begin in the Musashinonomori Park and head towards Fuji International Speedway via some long drags and perhaps a decisive climb of Kagosaka Pass, which is 2.2km long and has an average gradient of 5%. Following their final climb, they will descend to the Speedway where they will ride one and a half laps to the finish.

If the non-specialist climbers can cling on through the tricky middle section, we could see a fast and furious finish, although it’s highly unlikely to come down to a sprint. Teams with smaller numbers may try and force a breakaway earlier on in the day, whereas the larger teams will be able to control the race a little bit more. Expect aggressive racing on a course that’s hard to predict a clear cut winner.

Watch the road race and every unmissable moment live from Tokyo 2020 across Eurosport, Eurosport app and discovery+. Tune in from 5am BST on Sunday July 25.