Carlos Alcaraz v Rafael Nadal v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Who's more likely to finish 2022 as No. 1 after ATP Finals?
/dnl.eurosport.com/sd/img/placeholder/eurosport_logo_1x1.png){kind=logo}
Published 11/11/2022 at 08:33 GMT
Carlos Alcaraz, Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas all have the chance to finish as year-end No. 1, but who will be top of the rankings after the Nitto ATP Finals? Current world No. 1 Alcaraz will not be in Turin due to injury, so world No. 2 Nadal will be the top seed ahead of Tsitsipas. Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev will also be among the leading contenders at the tournament.
'I don't fight to be number one' - Nadal not bothered about top ranking spot
Carlos Alcaraz will not be at the Nitto ATP Finals – but will he finish as year-end No. 1?
Alcaraz has been ruled out of the season-ending tournament in Turin due to a stomach muscle injury suffered against Holger Rune in the Paris Masters semi-finals.
His absence means there is an opportunity for either Rafael Nadal or Stefanos Tsitsipas to overtake him and snatch the No. 1 ranking. If Nadal gets to top spot it will be the first time in two years he has been in the position and he will also secure a sixth year-end No. 1 finish, moving him one ahead of Roger Federer, level with Pete Sampras and one behind all-time leader Novak Djokovic. Tsitsipas has never been higher than his current ranking of No. 3.
So, with the No. 1 ranking still on the line heading into the final tournament of the 2022 season, who’s more likely to be holding it after Turin?
Carlos Alcaraz
How Alcaraz will be year-end No. 1: If neither Nadal or Tsitsipas fulfil their requirements
Alcaraz has a 1,000-point lead over world No. 2 Nadal heading into the ATP Finals.
He’s a strong clubhouse leader, but the fact he won’t be playing the tournament has opened the door slightly for Nadal and Tsitsipas.
Whether he finishes the year as No. 1 or not, Alcaraz has still arguably been the player of 2023.
He has made a huge breakthrough by winning the US Open, along with Masters titles in Miami and Madrid. He’s also scored some big wins over Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Tsitsipas (who he is 3-0 against). Assuming he makes a smooth recovery from his injury, Alcaraz should return as one of the leading challengers for Grand Slam titles in 2023.
Rafael Nadal
How Nadal will be year-end No. 1: If he wins ATP Finals or finishes as runner-up with a 4-1 record and Tsitsipas doesn't go 5-0
The ATP Finals is the biggest trophy missing from Nadal’s massive collection.
This will be the 11th time that Nadal has played the tournament and he has only twice (2010 and 2013) made the final. It looks an enormous ask for him to break his duck this time around.
/origin-imgresizer.eurosport.com/2022/11/03/3483268-71012533-2560-1440.jpg)
Highlights: Paul upsets Nadal in second round at Paris Masters
Nadal’s only singles match since losing in the fourth round of the US Open was a three-set defeat to Tommy Paul at the Paris Masters last week. He admitted afterwards that it is “difficult to imagine” he will challenge for victory at the ATP Finals given his form and fitness, which, since early in the summer, has been hampered by an abdominal injury.
To get to the summit he would at least need to get to the final in Turin and for that to happen there would need to be a big improvement from what he showed in Paris. The draw has been kind with both Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz in Nadal's group, but right now the semi-finals probably looks the limit.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
How Tsitsipas will be year-end No. 1: If he goes 5-0 at the ATP Finals
Tsitsipas had an ATP Finals debut to remember in 2017 when he beat Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem on his way to lifting the trophy.
He hasn’t backed that up over the last two years, going out in the group stage in 2020 and withdrawing due to injury in 2021. However, he comes into the finals in sneaky good form, having made finals in Astana and Stockholm, as well as the semis in Paris, pushing Djokovic close in three sets.
Is his form good enough that he can win all five matches in Turin to get to No. 1?
/origin-imgresizer.eurosport.com/2022/11/05/3484851-71044193-2560-1440.jpg)
Highlights: Djokovic overcomes Tsitsipas fightback to reach Paris Masters final
The difficulty might be the quality of the opposition. As good as he has been, Tsitsipas has lost to Djokovic twice in the autumn, was beaten by Felix Auger-Aliassime when they last met on indoor hard courts, and has bad head-to-head records against Medvedev and Nadal.
Having been put in a very tricky group with Djokovic, Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, it looks a very tall order for Tsitsipas to get to No. 1.
Verdict
The last non-Big Four year-end No. 1 was Andy Roddick in 2003; Alcaraz looks poised to break that run.
Nadal started his year by winning the Australian Open when he wasn’t fancied to do so, but it would probably be even more of a surprise if he won the ATP Finals given his current situation. Making the final might be doable, but much will depend on his physical level and who he gets in the semis.
As for Tsitsipas, he will need to have one of the best weeks of his career to go unbeaten. It’s not impossibile but Alcaraz looks the most likely to end 2023 as world No. 1.
Scan me
Related Topics
Share this article
Advertisement
Advertisement